Most people don’t realize that at the GOP convention Ron Paul’s name was officially submitted to be on the ballot in formal notarized fashion submitted by five states. The GOP response? They pretended it never happened. But it did happen and at that second the entire political process in America became one big fucking farce.
Now people are wondering why “Five Million White Voters” stayed home. Duh! The cheating of Ron Paul. Without Ron Paul the republicans COULD NOT WIN and they didn’t care they were going to put forward a criminal elite kodger no matter what. They were so terrified of Ron Paul they would not ALLOW a vote of Romney vs. Paul in the election. The sad truth? Romney was so disliked he would probably have lost that vote.
Please join me in telling Sean Trende, Real Clear Politics that he is a total worthless brainless DOUCHEBAG for mentioning H. Ross Perot voters and having no clue what happened in the last election. Sean you are a pathetic imbecile. Screw you!
The Current Population Survey data roughly confirm this. As I noted earlier, if you correct the CPS data to account for over-response bias, it shows there were likely 5 million fewer whites in 2012 than in 2008. When you account for expected growth, we’d find 6.5 million fewer whites than a population projection would anticipate.
This is the real ballgame regarding demographic change in 2012. If these white voters had decided to vote, the racial breakdown of the electorate would have been 73.6 percent white, 12.5 percent black, 9.5 percent Hispanic and 2.4 percent Asian — almost identical to the 2008 numbers.
2. These voters were largely downscale, Northern, rural whites. In other words, H. Ross Perot voters.
Those totals are a bit more precise and certain (and lower) than my estimates from November of last year. With more complete data, we can now get a better handle regarding just who these missing white voters were.
Below is a map of change in turnout by county, from 2008 to 2012. Each shade of blue means that turnout was progressively lower in a county, although I stopped coding at -10 percent. Similarly, every shade of red means that turnout was progressively higher, to a maximum of +10 percent.
The drop in turnout occurs in a rough diagonal, stretching from northern Maine, across upstate New York (perhaps surprisingly, turnout in post-Sandy New York City dropped off relatively little), and down into New Mexico. Michigan and the non-swing state, non-Mormon Mountain West also stand out. Note also that turnout is surprisingly stable in the Deep South; Romney’s problem was not with the Republican base or evangelicals (who constituted a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2004).