jobgrowthmay17

So in the past six months of Obama’s administration he had three crappy months for employment data according to the ADT payroll analysis. Trump has yet to have a bad report. In fact, he keeps hitting the 250,000+ number. This is a good performance as many believe we were on the precipace.  Unlike the oft quoted 150,000 new jobs needed to stay afloat with population growth – that number may have been correct in 1980 but not today – today’s 250,000 is probably our ‘just keeping afloat’ median.

What we are waiting for is a breakout, a 300k jobs number, something that shows the economy has shifted forward, combined with strong shipping and inventory numbers.

The official DOL showed much grimmer stats –

The economy added 138,000 jobs in May, fewer than analysts were expecting; and after setting three straight monthly records, the number of unemployed Americans dropped by 233,000 to 152,923,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a point to 4.3 percent, near historic lows.

But the number of Americans not in the labor force – meaning they are neither working nor looking for work – increased by 608,000 to 94,983,000 in May

.One wonders if the discrepancy between the two views is due to the illegal aliens or to the weird statistical fumblings like the birth/death ratio that the DOL fumbles with.  I’d trust the ADP numbers, they are real checks issued. With the caveat that 100,000 of those new workers were illegal alien tax dodgers. Eh, typical. You see that’s the sinister underbelly of illegal immigration they drive wages lower and lower all because they pay no taxes. In fact they are incensed at the 15% social security tax being taken out which is why you hear the pro-illegals constantly citing that figure of “we pay in more than we take out” which is poppycock. No illegals cost us 100s of billions each year.  Jails, welfare fraud not to mention the number of citizens that die because of them. Let’s hope the tide turns on them. But not until we crack down on welfare, stopping this 14th amendment misinterpretation nonsense, prohibit them from housing and banking, not until all that will American citizens do better, and that includes mexican american citizens.

China’s factory production number had their first downturn this month. They continue to push hard production projects funded by government debt. So they get bullet trains, new cities, harbors, and things purchased in America. Yet in the states, we get institutions, bank capitalization and hedge funds, and 24 trillion in derivatives waiting to crash the world markets. Or ‘Ghost Capital’ and ‘Ghost Production’.  This investment of our perhaps last gasp of cash into the soft financial underbelly, may lead to disaster. America crumbles without liveable cities, clogged highways, no brilliant people moving technologies no balance of green and housing and work. Instead its a sooty mass of chaos. Crumbling.

Which strategy will win? I’m voting on China.  Trump’s North Korea play seems to let China off the hook from a general Tariffs. Without that, our small success will all funnel to chinese profits. But at least the Hedge fund managers are paid well. And 250,000 more workers. Bartenders. Walmart greeters (no wait they’ve been changed for loss prevention agents at the doors! a sign of the fall if any!).

Meanwhile Germany kertuffles as Merkel snorts over Trump’s rough handed treatment. Is there any way out of this mess. The only good thing is that Trump has time we haven’t gone over the precipice in jobs quite yet. But it is coming. A tidal wave only pushed back by manic Trumpism.