The breakout in the US 10 Year Treasury to almost 3% away from the trendline below 2% is a sign that things are seriously falling apart. A breakout in the bond market pricing is due to the fed no longer buying its own debt and china dumping US debt. All that debt requires incentive to buy. So the price goes up. The question is, how much does it have to go up to incentivize investors to gobble 20 trillion in debt? How long can this game go on?
If it surpasses 3% or 3.5% it could wreak havoc on the mortgage markets which would be up to 2% highter. And that could be the first step towards a new downturn. Trump is right that we need tariffs, tax and regulations cuts, and a strong America first economy to offset our debt pressure.