The Yield Curves, the Freight! the Triple Witching. Everything is screaming right now, but will Trump pull off magic? Let’s take a look.
The yield curve has just inverted for the first time since 2007. This means that holding money short pays more than holding money long. This means the market perceives long term risk.
Then there is the global freight. Not looking good and it’s not just the Tariffs (which right now are quite minimal on China which is why the are so scared of the 25% tariffs to come if no deal is made)
So while it’s headed down it’s not a disaster yet. OK let’s look at housing:
So we are at PEAK HOUSING … again. Presumably on a better mortage base than before.
New housing starts looked bleak in december, but january came roaring back.
So December was total SHITE but.. January is roaring back to normal. Not an economy about to collapse unless we are building ghost cities.
So what’s the verdict Recession? No Recession? It’s time for recession but there’s enough wiggle room for Trump magic to apply.